What do you think is a realistic peaceful solution to the China-Taiwan issue?
Everybody knows about the backstory, there was a civil war, KMT fled to Taiwan creating two Chinas sort of, maybe, neither recognises the other, whole thing. ROC (Taiwan) ended up transitioning from military rule to a multi-party democracy, while the PRC (mainland China) didn’t do that (they did reform economically, “socialism with Chinese characteristics” and all that, but still a one-party state, not a multi-party democracy). The status quo right now is that Taiwan is in the grey area of statehood where they function pretty much independently but aren’t properly recognised, and both sides of the strait are feeling pretty tense right now.
Taiwan’s stance on the issue is that they would like to remain politically and economically independent of mainland China, retaining their multi-party democracy, political connections to its allies, economic trade connections, etc. Also, a majority of the people in Taiwan do not support reunification with China.
China’s stance on the issue is that Taiwan should be reunified with the mainland at all costs, ideally peacefully, but war is not ruled out. They argue that Taiwan was unfairly separated from the mainland by imperial powers in their “century of humiliation”. Strategically, taking Taiwan would be beneficial to China as they would have better control of the sea.
Is it even possible for both sides to agree to a peaceful solution? Personally, I can only see two ways this could go about that has the consent of both parties. One, a reformist leader takes power in the mainland and gives up on Taiwan, and the two exist as separate independent nations. Or two, the mainland gets a super-reformist leader that transitions the mainland to a multi-party democracy, and maybe then reunification could be on the table, with Taiwan keeping an autonomous status given the large cultural difference (similar to Hong Kong or Macau’s current status). Both options are, unfortunately, very unlikely to occur in the near future.
A third option (?) would be a pseudo-unification, where Taiwan becomes a recognised country, but there can be free movement of people between the mainland and Taiwan, free trade, that sort of stuff (sort of like the EU? Maybe?). Not sure if the PRC would accept that.
What are your thoughts on a peaceful solution to the crisis that both sides could agree on?
edit: Damn there are crazies in both ends of the arguments. I really don’t think giving Taiwan nukes would help solve the problem.
I think the current best solution, looking at the more reasonable and realistic comments, seems to be to maintain the status quo, at least until both sides of the strait are able to come into some sort of agreement (which seems to be worlds away right now given their current very opposing stances on the issue)
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No, it’s not. I am me, you are not. I decide what I think. You do not. I give you my opinion on the realities that likely frame how Taiwanese people are answering these polls. That’s not me saying that Taiwan should officially declare independence as soon as possible.
I am not “excluding data” in the first place. I am just giving you my observations on it.
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Yes, that was in a direct comparison between pro-independence and pro-unification votes.
I still maintain my position on the polling itself: More people clearly support eventual independence as compared to unification by current polling, and the current setup is de-facto independence already. Moreover, most people in Taiwan by the same polls self-identify as Taiwanese. China also very much implies, if not threatens a war if they try to go independent officially - that’s likely to temper many responses.
I can make these observations without also saying that Taiwan should declare independence officially as soon as possible.
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What facts have I thrown out? How am I a chauvinist?
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I believe given the current circumstances on the ground most, or many more than not would support the status quo. If they did have to, if they could safely freely choose - I think that given how many more currently voice support for independence relative to those who support unification, coupled with the poll results on identity - suggests to me that if it was regarded as a safe option, many more would opt for official independence.
I accept the poll results as they are, but contextualise them regarding my own understanding.
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I have given you my argument. Show me yours for how what I have said indicates I have murdered puppies.
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I haven’t done that. I’ve given you my arguments.
Where did I ignore anything? Am I specifically saying the polls should be ignored? As I said, I’m not saying that Taiwan should do anything. All I’m doing is saying that in a binary choice between independence (officially) where they wouldn’t be threatened for going down that path and unification, I suspect most Taiwanese would choose independence.
Again, I’ve given you my arguments.
Me giving you my opinion based on my reading of a number of factors about that poll, and other polls is somehow putting words in other people’s mouths?
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Where? Quote me? I just gave my analysis. It’s a poll. It doesn’t actually have any specific legal application. I’m just giving you my opinion on it.
Right, it’s a hypothetical where Taiwan could freely choose between recognised statehood and unifying with China. I think they would choose to be a state. The status of their current system is not ideal for anyone - even if it doesn’t in practice harm anyone that much, but is maintained purely to keep the peace.
What evidence have I ignored? I don’t believe you can just look at those specific polls and say “Gee, I think the Taiwanese must be completely divided or overtly support the status quo purely because they prefer it to either unification or independence”. The “status quo” is a result of geopolitical realities that, for obvious reasons, is better than the geopolitical alternatives.
And I will just copy and paste my explanation each time.
I believe given the current circumstances on the ground most, or many more than not would support the status quo. If they did have to, if they could safely freely choose - I think that given how many more currently voice support for independence relative to those who support unification, coupled with the poll results on identity - suggests to me that if it was regarded as a safe option, many more would opt for official independence.
I accept the poll results as they are, but I think fairly determine that more people in Taiwan would support statehood if they thought it a viable and safe option.
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That’s not me saying the poll should be ignored.
The definition of a hypothetical is that it’s a set of circumstances not present in the real world as it is now. Well done.
What are some other options?
Right, I’m not saying they support it now but primarily because of the risk of inciting China into attacking them. If that was not a threat, they would likely support moving towards independence officially.
So you don’t even disagree with me here then. You think the hypothetical is outlandish (to the point where you compare China accepting their self-determination to a literal alien invasion) but don’t dispute my conclusions.
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I’ve explained my reasoning over and over.
Good for you. I’m saying that I suspect many more Taiwanese people would support and vote for official independence movements if they thought it was safe and viable to do so. This is not exactly an outlandish observation at all.
It doesn’t? It’s just a discussion.