What do you think is a realistic peaceful solution to the China-Taiwan issue?

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Everybody knows about the backstory, there was a civil war, KMT fled to Taiwan creating two Chinas sort of, maybe, neither recognises the other, whole thing. ROC (Taiwan) ended up transitioning from military rule to a multi-party democracy, while the PRC (mainland China) didn’t do that (they did reform economically, “socialism with Chinese characteristics” and all that, but still a one-party state, not a multi-party democracy). The status quo right now is that Taiwan is in the grey area of statehood where they function pretty much independently but aren’t properly recognised, and both sides of the strait are feeling pretty tense right now.

Taiwan’s stance on the issue is that they would like to remain politically and economically independent of mainland China, retaining their multi-party democracy, political connections to its allies, economic trade connections, etc. Also, a majority of the people in Taiwan do not support reunification with China.

China’s stance on the issue is that Taiwan should be reunified with the mainland at all costs, ideally peacefully, but war is not ruled out. They argue that Taiwan was unfairly separated from the mainland by imperial powers in their “century of humiliation”. Strategically, taking Taiwan would be beneficial to China as they would have better control of the sea.

Is it even possible for both sides to agree to a peaceful solution? Personally, I can only see two ways this could go about that has the consent of both parties. One, a reformist leader takes power in the mainland and gives up on Taiwan, and the two exist as separate independent nations. Or two, the mainland gets a super-reformist leader that transitions the mainland to a multi-party democracy, and maybe then reunification could be on the table, with Taiwan keeping an autonomous status given the large cultural difference (similar to Hong Kong or Macau’s current status). Both options are, unfortunately, very unlikely to occur in the near future.

A third option (?) would be a pseudo-unification, where Taiwan becomes a recognised country, but there can be free movement of people between the mainland and Taiwan, free trade, that sort of stuff (sort of like the EU? Maybe?). Not sure if the PRC would accept that.

What are your thoughts on a peaceful solution to the crisis that both sides could agree on?

edit: Damn there are crazies in both ends of the arguments. I really don’t think giving Taiwan nukes would help solve the problem.

I think the current best solution, looking at the more reasonable and realistic comments, seems to be to maintain the status quo, at least until both sides of the strait are able to come into some sort of agreement (which seems to be worlds away right now given their current very opposing stances on the issue)

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I can literally read their polling on this and in a binary choice between official independence and “reunification”, the former wins out.

Right, which is why throwing the situation into chaos to force a non-issue is completely absurd.

I didn’t say anything should change. Just that they do not want to be incorporated into China.

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This chart proves their point, it’s overwhelmingly pro-independence. Did you read it before posting?

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That’s not what you said. What you actually said was “Taiwan should ideally be an independent state because that’s ultimately what they want?” That sounds a lot like calling for formal independence, not the status quo.

I do believe it’s what they want, but geopolitical pressures and reality ultimately get the response we see above. What we can see is that, eliminating the safe, friction-free option of status quo that about 7-8% want to unify and 25-26% want to officially seek independence.

Now this isn’t me saying they should actually do that now, but simply that is how I interpret the data.

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No, eliminating the safe, friction-free option of status quo shows that 4% want to officially seek independence.

As compared to 1% wanting unification.

The majority wants to maintain the status quo without moving in either direction. A supermajority wants to maintain the status quo while moving in one direction or the other. But all of their voices are ignored by chauvinistic Westerners who want to ignore what they want and force the issue because that’s what they want

Who is doing this? Name people actively trying to encourage this.

with these nonsense excuses like “they only say that because they’re being influenced by the existing material conditions” and “if we ignore 95% of the responses, people actually agree with me.”

Do you think people answer polls like this with no understanding or regard of actual geopolitical reality, or something? Do you think the reality on the floor is of no relevance to them? Material conditions suddenly have no relevance, do they?

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Who fucking cares! We’re talking about 4% vs 1%! What about what everybody else wants??

I also think the drastic difference between “status quo now, independence later” and “status quo now, unification later” also matters heavily too.

Skavau@piefed.social, for starters.

Quote me. Quote me where I said they should seek independence right now.

No, what I think is that actual geopolitical reality is a relevant factor that shouldn’t just be arbitrarily disregarded, as you seem to want. Incorporating material conditions into your poll response is not grounds for it being thrown out, jfc.

When did I say the poll should be “thrown out”? I’m just giving my reading of it.

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I don’t know. Am I doing that when I say that Taiwan should ideally be an independent state because that’s ultimately what they want?

Where was that “right now” there?

When did I say the poll should be “thrown out”? I’m just giving my reading of it.

How is the way I read a poll means I am trying to tell Taiwan what to do?

What we can see is that, eliminating the safe, friction-free option of status quo

See above.

Also, I’m just a random person. Who of note, or of influence is trying to encourage this?

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Again, I’m giving you my opinion. I’m not saying Taiwan should immediately declare independence (it would be obviously very dangerous for them to do this). I’m just saying that it seems likely to me that if China were to back-off, that Taiwan would very quickly officially declare independence and rebrand.

And again: I’m just a random person. Who of note, or of influence is trying to encourage this?

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That’s not what the polls show and I don’t see how that’s relevant regardless. If space aliens attacked, maybe Taiwan would seek unification with China for mutual protection. But there aren’t any space aliens so who gives a shit? That’s not the world we live in.

I’m telling you how I interpret the polls. Giving you my opinion.

Plenty of people in the US ruling class, but I don’t see how that’s relevant. I’m criticizing your position.

Name them openly calling for Taiwan to declare independence.

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In that case, my “interpretation” of the 2024 US presidential election is that, once you exclude all the votes for bourgeois parties, The Party For Socialism and Liberation won the election with 171k votes. Three cheers for President De la Cruz!

How would you evaluate it seriously? Why would this make sense even as you’re clearly not being serious?

Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, for one.

What did he say specifically encouraging Taiwan to do this?

Again, establish relevance please. Again, I am criticizing your position.

You said specifically that people of power in the west are lining up to try and convince Taiwanese politicians to just declare independence asap.

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I don’t see what you’re confused about. If you can throw out 96% of responses in a poll and call it an “interpretation,” then why can’t I throw out 99.88% of votes and call it an interpretation too? Is there a line somewhere between 96% and 99.88%?

I didn’t “throw them out” - I simply stated that I think the country would be on a process to independence now if the pressures from China weren’t there. More people clearly support eventual independence as compared to unification by current polling, and the current setup is de-facto independence already. Moreover, most people in Taiwan by the same polls self-identify as Taiwanese.

Quote me where I said this.

“Plenty of people in the US ruling class, but I don’t see how that’s relevant. I’m criticizing your position.”

“Taiwan is a sovereign and free country.” A clear and direct deviation from the status quo of strategic ambiguity.

That isn’t telling Taiwan to do anything. That’s just him running his mouth. US politicians say that without specifically petitioning for or directing Taiwan to officially repudiate their historical claims and declare independence.

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You arbitrarily excluded their responses. Again, “if this” “if that” it doesn’t matter. Taiwanese people are answering the polls based on what they think is best for them in the situation as it actually exists, and we should be looking at the situation the same way. Not basing opinions based on imagined hypotheticals with nothing to do with anything.

Sure, and given that China very much implies, if not threatens a war if they try to go independent officially - that’s likely to temper many responses.

The US formally recognizing Taiwan would be a huge deviation from the status quo.

Him doing that wasn’t the USA doing that though.

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Cool, that sounds like a great reason why maintaining the status quo is a good idea. We should probably listen to the majority, who wisely consider the actual ramifications of these options instead of fools who only care about hypotheticals.

Did I say otherwise?

My point was that realities were having an impact.

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No, I didn’t. Me giving an opinion on the results of a poll (or many polls, to be clear) is not saying that Taiwan should just declare independence.

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When your “opinion” on a poll involves throwing out 96% of respondents because they didn’t say that Taiwan should just declare independence, yeah it kinda is.

No, it’s not. I am me, you are not. I decide what I think. You do not. I give you my opinion on the realities that likely frame how Taiwanese people are answering these polls. That’s not me saying that Taiwan should officially declare independence as soon as possible.

I am not “excluding data” in the first place. I am just giving you my observations on it.

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Yes, that was in a direct comparison between pro-independence and pro-unification votes.

I still maintain my position on the polling itself: More people clearly support eventual independence as compared to unification by current polling, and the current setup is de-facto independence already. Moreover, most people in Taiwan by the same polls self-identify as Taiwanese. China also very much implies, if not threatens a war if they try to go independent officially - that’s likely to temper many responses.

I can make these observations without also saying that Taiwan should declare independence officially as soon as possible.

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What facts have I thrown out? How am I a chauvinist?

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I believe given the current circumstances on the ground most, or many more than not would support the status quo. If they did have to, if they could safely freely choose - I think that given how many more currently voice support for independence relative to those who support unification, coupled with the poll results on identity - suggests to me that if it was regarded as a safe option, many more would opt for official independence.

I accept the poll results as they are, but contextualise them regarding my own understanding.

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I have given you my argument. Show me yours for how what I have said indicates I have murdered puppies.

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I don’t have to. I can just ignore whatever you say and put whatever I feel like into your mouth because that’s how it works, apparently.

I haven’t done that. I’ve given you my arguments.

Where did I ignore anything? Am I specifically saying the polls should be ignored? As I said, I’m not saying that Taiwan should do anything. All I’m doing is saying that in a binary choice between independence (officially) where they wouldn’t be threatened for going down that path and unification, I suspect most Taiwanese would choose independence.

Maybe there’s somebody holding you hostage and forcing you to post your comments when you actually want to confess to a bunch of puppy murders. I guess I’m just allowed to assume that, and no matter what evidence you can provide, I’ll just assume that the guy holding you hostage is forcing you to fabricate it.

Again, I’ve given you my arguments.

Or, we can live in a world where evidence actually exists, even when it tells us things contrary to our preconceived opinions, and you can stop arbitrarily silence the perspectives of majority of Taiwanese people and put your own ideas into their mouths.

Me giving you my opinion based on my reading of a number of factors about that poll, and other polls is somehow putting words in other people’s mouths?

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Yes! You literally said that the majority of responses should be excluded!

Where? Quote me? I just gave my analysis. It’s a poll. It doesn’t actually have any specific legal application. I’m just giving you my opinion on it.

This might be hard to understand if you’re used to following American politics, but we don’t actually have to write off all the good, sane, popular options and chose between two bad options that nobody wants.

Right, it’s a hypothetical where Taiwan could freely choose between recognised statehood and unifying with China. I think they would choose to be a state. The status of their current system is not ideal for anyone - even if it doesn’t in practice harm anyone that much, but is maintained purely to keep the peace.

If you call your decision to arbitrarily ignore evidence an “opinion” or “interpretation” one more time, I’m blocking you.

What evidence have I ignored? I don’t believe you can just look at those specific polls and say “Gee, I think the Taiwanese must be completely divided or overtly support the status quo purely because they prefer it to either unification or independence”. The “status quo” is a result of geopolitical realities that, for obvious reasons, is better than the geopolitical alternatives.

Yes, because your “opinion” is literally just excluding any responses you don’t agree with so that the ones you do agree with appear more popular than they are. As I have explained over and over to you.

And I will just copy and paste my explanation each time.

I believe given the current circumstances on the ground most, or many more than not would support the status quo. If they did have to, if they could safely freely choose - I think that given how many more currently voice support for independence relative to those who support unification, coupled with the poll results on identity - suggests to me that if it was regarded as a safe option, many more would opt for official independence.

I accept the poll results as they are, but I think fairly determine that more people in Taiwan would support statehood if they thought it a viable and safe option.

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I have quoted this for you multiple times already:

That’s not me saying the poll should be ignored.

No it isn’t. There isn’t a hypothetical, there is the real world, and in the real world there are lots of options besides those two.

The definition of a hypothetical is that it’s a set of circumstances not present in the real world as it is now. Well done.

No it isn’t. There isn’t a hypothetical, there is the real world, and in the real world there are lots of options besides those two.

What are some other options?

Fucking hell! Why else would you support any course of geopolitical action than it being better than the geopolitical alternatives based on geopolitical realities!?

Right, I’m not saying they support it now but primarily because of the risk of inciting China into attacking them. If that was not a threat, they would likely support moving towards independence officially.

So what? And as I said before, if space aliens attacked, maybe they’d want unification for protection. You can’t just change the geopolitical realities, insert whatever you think their responses would be, and treat that as somehow being more true or more valid than their actual responses based on the actual geopolitical realities. This is complete nonsense.

So you don’t even disagree with me here then. You think the hypothetical is outlandish (to the point where you compare China accepting their self-determination to a literal alien invasion) but don’t dispute my conclusions.

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Just that the majority of the responses should be ignored, so that you can cherry pick the results you want.

I’ve explained my reasoning over and over.

I’m saying I don’t care what your mental model of Taiwanese people would say if the world were different than how it is, more than I care what the actual Taiwanese people do say in the world that actually exists.

Good for you. I’m saying that I suspect many more Taiwanese people would support and vote for official independence movements if they thought it was safe and viable to do so. This is not exactly an outlandish observation at all.

How does your mental model of Taiwanese people in this hypothetical matter in any way?

It doesn’t? It’s just a discussion.

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