PieFedWhat do you think is a realistic peaceful solution to the China-Taiwan issue?
sbeakEverybody knows about the backstory, there was a civil war, KMT fled to Taiwan creating two Chinas sort of, maybe, neither recognises the other, whole thing. ROC (Taiwan) ended up transitioning from military rule to a multi-party democracy, while the PRC (mainland China) didn’t do that (they did reform economically, “socialism with Chinese characteristics” and all that, but still a one-party state, not a multi-party democracy). The status quo right now is that Taiwan is in the grey area of statehood where they function pretty much independently but aren’t properly recognised, and both sides of the strait are feeling pretty tense right now.
Taiwan’s stance on the issue is that they would like to remain politically and economically independent of mainland China, retaining their multi-party democracy, political connections to its allies, economic trade connections, etc. Also, a majority of the people in Taiwan do not support reunification with China.
China’s stance on the issue is that Taiwan should be reunified with the mainland at all costs, ideally peacefully, but war is not ruled out. They argue that Taiwan was unfairly separated from the mainland by imperial powers in their “century of humiliation”. Strategically, taking Taiwan would be beneficial to China as they would have better control of the sea.
Is it even possible for both sides to agree to a peaceful solution? Personally, I can only see two ways this could go about that has the consent of both parties. One, a reformist leader takes power in the mainland and gives up on Taiwan, and the two exist as separate independent nations. Or two, the mainland gets a super-reformist leader that transitions the mainland to a multi-party democracy, and maybe then reunification could be on the table, with Taiwan keeping an autonomous status given the large cultural difference (similar to Hong Kong or Macau’s current status). Both options are, unfortunately, very unlikely to occur in the near future.
A third option (?) would be a pseudo-unification, where Taiwan becomes a recognised country, but there can be free movement of people between the mainland and Taiwan, free trade, that sort of stuff (sort of like the EU? Maybe?). Not sure if the PRC would accept that.
What are your thoughts on a peaceful solution to the crisis that both sides could agree on?
edit: Damn there are crazies in both ends of the arguments. I really don’t think giving Taiwan nukes would help solve the problem.
I think the current best solution, looking at the more reasonable and realistic comments, seems to be to maintain the status quo, at least until both sides of the strait are able to come into some sort of agreement (which seems to be worlds away right now given their current very opposing stances on the issue)
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I don’t know. Am I doing that when I say that Taiwan should ideally be an independent state because that’s ultimately what they want?
No? I would question it being what they want as a whole I’m not sure it’s that clear an issue. But if that’s all you said then my comment obviously doesn’t apply to you. ???
I’m not saying it’s a big issue, but status-quo or status-quo with a view to independence (combined constitute a majority of polling on the matter) very much indicate wanting to maintain independence de facto - combined with a majority of pro-Taiwan identity in polling.
“Reunification” scores very badly.
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And you’d be foolish to think China’s rhetoric and threats doesn’t impact how people vote on that. In any case, “Reunification” is very much the least favourite choice from all of them.
And Taiwan is already a de facto independent state.
Ok, then the did you determine what the people of Taiwan actually want? White man mind reading?
I’ve said it all over this thread what I suspect the majority want to do. You’ve seen my answers on this repeatedly if you’re reading this thread.
So based on noting except chauvanism
How so? I gave my arguments.
Do you believe they want to join the PRC and be governed under the CCP?
Your argument was just “I believe it to be true”
No, it wasn’t. I gave arguments up and down this thread. Now my question: Do you believe they want to join the PRC and be governed under the CCP?
No you didn’t
Yes, I did. Still not answering my question. Not moving: Do you believe they want to join the PRC and be governed under the CCP?
No. You didn’t. And you’re right I’m not answering your off topic question. Stay on topic
Yes, I did. Still not answering my question. Not moving: Do you believe they want to join the PRC and be governed under the CCP?
And I will do whatever I like and without your permission.
No. You didn’t. And you’re right I’m not answering your off topic question. Stay on topic
Gunna make me “stay on topic”, bro?
Lol, you’re so mad you’re bringing out the double posts and trying the Internet tough guy act.
Are you “mad” then when you insulted me?
Lol. Grow a thicker skin.
I’m not offended. I’m just noting your behaviour. Insults are usually a sign to indicate if someone is “mad” if we’re keeping count.
I’d also note that others in here were very much clutching their pearls over that Chinese user calling for the PRC to fall. That to me suggests they need a thicker skin.
Lol. Beyond parody
How so?
It reads like an over the top parody of how an angry person who’s trying to pretend they’re not writes. “I’m just noting your behavior”? My god. Incredible.
I could say anything, and you’d almost certainly accuse me of being angry.
“Me acting incredibly mad doesn’t mean I’m mad, because you ‘almost certainly’ would have said I was mad even if I didn’t”
Counter factuals are great because nobody can ever prove you wrong
Again, your assessment that I am mad is empty. You would accuse me of being mad no matter what I say, purely because we disagree and I reply back. It’s just what you seem to do. I obviously dispute the premise of me supposedly being “mad” in the first place.
And how is it you are somehow able to prove me or indeed anyone you interact with is somehow “mad”?
“If I just keep repeating the same completely unfalsifiable counter factual, it will prove I’m not mad! I’ll also be sure to put the word mad in quotations to show how not mad I am, I don’t even know the word!”
Lol
Of course it’s unfalsifiable. How would I somehow disprove it?
I’ve seen you across the Fediverse. You are here purely to pick slapfights with people, drag people away from whatever they were discussing about degrade it into nothing but insults. Your conduct in this thread is no different. You have a ban list from communities and instances a mile-long for this behaviour.
Lol, you got so mad you started trawling my profile history.
No, we’ve spoke before. But again this isn’t really unfalsifiable - is it? You really have been banned all over the place.
“No! I wasn’t so mad I started trawling your profile for ad-hom material! I just know your comment and moderation history because ‘we’ve spoke before’”
Sure thing
I’ve looked before, sure. Modlogs are publicly viewable on the Fediverse, so this doesn’t take long. Also, that’s not the definition of an ad hominem. Just giving you my assessment of your behaviour based on your conduct.
Yes, I did. Still not answering my question. Not moving: Do you believe they want to join the PRC and be governed under the CCP?
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Personal insult noted. You keep replying dude. I just lock-down and insist when I want a question answered and the other person refuses. It’s that simple.
Yes, that does indeed describe you being obviously incredibly mad.
I’m not the one who hurled insults.
So replying to someone when they keep replying back now makes them “mad”? Insisting you want a question answered means you must be “mad”? You accuse me of being some ‘reddit’ type but you’re implying you’re doing the very online tactic of ragebaiting.
Yeah man, you sound very not mad
I mean, I gave a pretty reasonable breakdown there in response to your claims of ‘mad’.
Lol. Suuuure you did
Yes, I did.
Who are you expecting to convince?
No-one specifically. Who are you expecting to convince exactly?
Lol. “I know you are, but what am I?”
What? I don’t join and interact anywhere with the specific goal of “convincing people”. It felt like a strange question.
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Genuinely low-tier ragebait that you’d throw at anyone.
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Don’t worry, I’ll end it now. You’ll never be able to reply to me again. Bored of this now.
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I can literally read their polling on this and in a binary choice between official independence and “reunification”, the former wins out.
I didn’t say anything should change. Just that they do not want to be incorporated into China.
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This chart proves their point, it’s overwhelmingly pro-independence. Did you read it before posting?
I do believe it’s what they want, but geopolitical pressures and reality ultimately get the response we see above. What we can see is that, eliminating the safe, friction-free option of status quo that about 7-8% want to unify and 25-26% want to officially seek independence.
Now this isn’t me saying they should actually do that now, but simply that is how I interpret the data.
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As compared to 1% wanting unification.
Who is doing this? Name people actively trying to encourage this.
Do you think people answer polls like this with no understanding or regard of actual geopolitical reality, or something? Do you think the reality on the floor is of no relevance to them? Material conditions suddenly have no relevance, do they?
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I also think the drastic difference between “status quo now, independence later” and “status quo now, unification later” also matters heavily too.
Quote me. Quote me where I said they should seek independence right now.
When did I say the poll should be “thrown out”? I’m just giving my reading of it.
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Where was that “right now” there?
How is the way I read a poll means I am trying to tell Taiwan what to do?
See above.
Also, I’m just a random person. Who of note, or of influence is trying to encourage this?
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Again, I’m giving you my opinion. I’m not saying Taiwan should immediately declare independence (it would be obviously very dangerous for them to do this). I’m just saying that it seems likely to me that if China were to back-off, that Taiwan would very quickly officially declare independence and rebrand.
And again: I’m just a random person. Who of note, or of influence is trying to encourage this?
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I’m telling you how I interpret the polls. Giving you my opinion.
Name them openly calling for Taiwan to declare independence.
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How would you evaluate it seriously? Why would this make sense even as you’re clearly not being serious?
What did he say specifically encouraging Taiwan to do this?
You said specifically that people of power in the west are lining up to try and convince Taiwanese politicians to just declare independence asap.
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I didn’t “throw them out” - I simply stated that I think the country would be on a process to independence now if the pressures from China weren’t there. More people clearly support eventual independence as compared to unification by current polling, and the current setup is de-facto independence already. Moreover, most people in Taiwan by the same polls self-identify as Taiwanese.
“Plenty of people in the US ruling class, but I don’t see how that’s relevant. I’m criticizing your position.”
That isn’t telling Taiwan to do anything. That’s just him running his mouth. US politicians say that without specifically petitioning for or directing Taiwan to officially repudiate their historical claims and declare independence.
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Sure, and given that China very much implies, if not threatens a war if they try to go independent officially - that’s likely to temper many responses.
Him doing that wasn’t the USA doing that though.
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Did I say otherwise?
My point was that realities were having an impact.
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No, I didn’t. Me giving an opinion on the results of a poll (or many polls, to be clear) is not saying that Taiwan should just declare independence.
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No, it’s not. I am me, you are not. I decide what I think. You do not. I give you my opinion on the realities that likely frame how Taiwanese people are answering these polls. That’s not me saying that Taiwan should officially declare independence as soon as possible.
I am not “excluding data” in the first place. I am just giving you my observations on it.
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Yes, that was in a direct comparison between pro-independence and pro-unification votes.
I still maintain my position on the polling itself: More people clearly support eventual independence as compared to unification by current polling, and the current setup is de-facto independence already. Moreover, most people in Taiwan by the same polls self-identify as Taiwanese. China also very much implies, if not threatens a war if they try to go independent officially - that’s likely to temper many responses.
I can make these observations without also saying that Taiwan should declare independence officially as soon as possible.
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What facts have I thrown out? How am I a chauvinist?
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I believe given the current circumstances on the ground most, or many more than not would support the status quo. If they did have to, if they could safely freely choose - I think that given how many more currently voice support for independence relative to those who support unification, coupled with the poll results on identity - suggests to me that if it was regarded as a safe option, many more would opt for official independence.
I accept the poll results as they are, but contextualise them regarding my own understanding.
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I have given you my argument. Show me yours for how what I have said indicates I have murdered puppies.
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I haven’t done that. I’ve given you my arguments.
Where did I ignore anything? Am I specifically saying the polls should be ignored? As I said, I’m not saying that Taiwan should do anything. All I’m doing is saying that in a binary choice between independence (officially) where they wouldn’t be threatened for going down that path and unification, I suspect most Taiwanese would choose independence.
Again, I’ve given you my arguments.
Me giving you my opinion based on my reading of a number of factors about that poll, and other polls is somehow putting words in other people’s mouths?
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Where? Quote me? I just gave my analysis. It’s a poll. It doesn’t actually have any specific legal application. I’m just giving you my opinion on it.
Right, it’s a hypothetical where Taiwan could freely choose between recognised statehood and unifying with China. I think they would choose to be a state. The status of their current system is not ideal for anyone - even if it doesn’t in practice harm anyone that much, but is maintained purely to keep the peace.
What evidence have I ignored? I don’t believe you can just look at those specific polls and say “Gee, I think the Taiwanese must be completely divided or overtly support the status quo purely because they prefer it to either unification or independence”. The “status quo” is a result of geopolitical realities that, for obvious reasons, is better than the geopolitical alternatives.
And I will just copy and paste my explanation each time.
I believe given the current circumstances on the ground most, or many more than not would support the status quo. If they did have to, if they could safely freely choose - I think that given how many more currently voice support for independence relative to those who support unification, coupled with the poll results on identity - suggests to me that if it was regarded as a safe option, many more would opt for official independence.
I accept the poll results as they are, but I think fairly determine that more people in Taiwan would support statehood if they thought it a viable and safe option.
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That’s not me saying the poll should be ignored.
The definition of a hypothetical is that it’s a set of circumstances not present in the real world as it is now. Well done.
What are some other options?
Right, I’m not saying they support it now but primarily because of the risk of inciting China into attacking them. If that was not a threat, they would likely support moving towards independence officially.
So you don’t even disagree with me here then. You think the hypothetical is outlandish (to the point where you compare China accepting their self-determination to a literal alien invasion) but don’t dispute my conclusions.
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I’ve explained my reasoning over and over.
Good for you. I’m saying that I suspect many more Taiwanese people would support and vote for official independence movements if they thought it was safe and viable to do so. This is not exactly an outlandish observation at all.
It doesn’t? It’s just a discussion.