Casual hockey fan here, mostly a Red Wings fan. I've been failing to find a stat that shows how many power play goals are scored for each player who gets a penalty.
My thought is, if your team is scored against while you're in the box, your team needs you and it was a costly penalty. Conversely, if your team is not scored against while you were in the box, they can play without you just fine, so go ahead and take a penalty.