Temperatures 1.5C above pre-industrial era average for 12 months, data shows

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www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/ju…

Copernicus Climate Change Service says results a ‘large and continuing shift’ in the climate

The world has baked for 12 consecutive months in temperatures 1.5C (2.7F) greater than their average before the fossil fuel era, new data shows.

Temperatures between July 2023 and June 2024 were the highest on record, scientists found, creating a year-long stretch in which the Earth was 1.64C hotter than in preindustrial times.

The findings do not mean world leaders have already failed to honour their promises to stop the planet heating 1.5C by the end of the century – a target that is measured in decadal averages rather than single years – but that scorching heat will have exposed more people to violent weather. A sustained rise in temperatures above this level also increases the risk of uncertain but catastrophic tipping points.

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37 Comments

SeaJ

We beat the deadline by 6 years, guys! Good work!

/s

conditional_soup

If this doesn't mean that we've failed the 1.5 C target, then what are the criteria for failure there?

PrimeErective

It's gotta be 1.5C hotter on average for a decade, not just a year

catloaf

One down, nine more to go!

Knock_Knock_Lemmy_In , edited

Five down. Five more to go. We are at the midpoint of the decade that counts.

gravitas_deficiency

We’re number one!

We’re number one!

Xanthobilly

Please stop. This is sobering news.

Hugucinogens

The political blockading 5 years ago was sobering news.

This is watching a really, really, really big train crash, after knowing for minutes that the driver was accelerating on purpose.

This was predicted and expected.

Cataphract

Oh yay! So we can have weeks where it's 5C hotter but as long as we have enough devastating cold snaps in the winter we can say it's not that bad yet!

aesthelete

We did it everyone!

Strawberry

god this made me cackle

wabafee , edited

Could have not done it, without our sponsor Raid Shadow Legends.

FiniteBanjo

One of the problems with these metrics is a lot of different authorities use different estimates of what the pre-industrial average is. One thing we can all agree on, though, is that temperatures are hitting record highs and global temperatures have far exceeded natural changes for anything ever recorded, and it's not going to stop.

A_A , edited

We are more than ever emitting CO~2~ and temperature will increase until a major drop in population.
Still i am quite sure humanity will survive it.

ramble81

Humanity will likely survive. The earth will definitely survive. But in both cases, the question will be: What will it look like?

FelixCress

Like this

EnderWiggin , edited

Probably something like the Bronze Era collapse, but with a lot more people and likely a rebound that leads to a slower industrial revolution involving renewable materials. I think the actual collapse will take a lot longer than people seem to think, on the order of the next 75 to 100 years. I think for some, it could happen rather quickly over the next 10-20 years, but for most, it'll be a slow and meandering quality of life decline over several generations that is already under way. Recovery will take much longer on the order of 100 to 250 years. I am basing this guesstimate on absolutely zero scientific information whatsoever.

Esqplorer

I really hope we can shift to a circular economy over the next 65 years as this happens and we can build what we need from the massive extractions from the earth made by our ancestors.

A_A

Very bad, for at least 100 years. Your guess is as accurate as mine.

tinfoilhat

I'm not the gambling type.

SGGeorwell

Oh but let’s raise the birth rate to save the economy

barsoap , edited

I mean, it depends. Sub-replacement birthrate means gerontocracy and you're currently seeing where that is leading. Pensioners by and large aren't great at changing things.

World-wide population growth is going to stop naturally in the next couple of decades as the last big countries finish their demographic transition, after that there's going to be at least a slight decrease and then stabilisation as industrialised countries figure out how to have replacement-level birthrates again. The earth certainly can sustain that many people indefinitely, with plenty of room to spare. Also at our living standards (minus cars plus public transit), and even with fewer working hours.

If you don't want to have kids fine don't have kids but the climate argument is BS. Don't think of it as producing a consumer, but producing a voter interested in the state of the earth 100 years from now.

jballs

Kurzgesagt had a good video about that recently that hit on those same points. Like you said, you don't want a society of old people with few young people. Then they vote for short term solutions and don't care about long term problems.

I mean, that already happens now, but even more so.

LavenderDay3544

Or maybe tell Nigeria and India and China to get their populations under control?

freebee

I think the Chinese population is very much *"under control"* already with their state-capitalist system.

zaphod

The chinese population peaked in 2021, they're now shrinking and have a fertility rate of roughly 1.1 despite the abolition of the one-child policy.

AutoTL;DR

This is the best summary I could come up with:


The world has baked for 12 consecutive months in temperatures 1.5C (2.7F) greater than their average before the fossil fuel era, new data shows.

Temperatures between July 2023 and June 2024 were the highest on record, scientists found, creating a year-long stretch in which the Earth was 1.64C hotter than in preindustrial times.

Copernicus, a scientific organisation that belongs to the EU’s space programme, uses billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations to track key climate metrics.

Whether pumped out the chimney of a coal-burning power plant or ejected from the exhaust pipe of a passenger plane, each carbon molecule clogging the Earth’s atmosphere traps heat and warps weather.

“This is not good news at all,” said Aditi Mukherji, a director at research institute CGIAR and co-author of the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report.

François Gemenne, an IPCC author and director of the Hugo Observatory at the University of Liège, said the climate crisis is not a binary issue.


The original article contains 592 words, the summary contains 165 words. Saved 72%. I'm a bot and I'm open source!

FelixCress

And yet it is fuckin cold and rainy in the UK.

floquant

Weather getting ever odder you say? Hmmm

FelixCress , edited

"Shittier" is the word I would use. It is 12 degrees outside now. And I wonder what idiots are downvoting my comment for simply stating facts.

floquant

Because you're confusing weather and climate. It's not that "the globe is warming *yet* it's cold here", it's cold and shitty *exactly because* of climate change.

FelixCress

I never said it wasn't?

floquant

Just saying what I feel it reads like, since you said you were wondering why the downvotes.

zaphod

Europe in general could end up very cold if the gulf stream collapses, which might happen due to climate change.

FelixCress

I don't know about the rest of Europe, it is quite warm in the central Europe now. It seems to be something very unique to the UK. Summer here starts Wed afternoon in June and is usually gone by Sunday evening.

zaphod

At the moment, but where I live we had temperatures of around 15°C last week to a 30°C peak this week.