PieFedPope Betting Odds: Bettors Lose Millions Predicting the New Pope as Polymarket Edge Fizzles Out
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www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/05/09/bettors-los…
The event throws into question the perceived heightened accuracy of betting markets like Poymarket over conventional polls.
He's completely missing that betting on something like the pope isn't like a random or skill based outcome. The cardinals could literally choose to pick based on the betting markets or even to profit from them if they really wanted to. Polymarket is smooth brain degeneracy for many, many reasons, but this is smooth brain degeneracy turned up to 11.