‘The damage is done’: global oil crisis has changed fossil fuel industry for ever, IEA chief says

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https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/apr/24/global-oil-crisis-changed-fossil-fuel-industry-for-ever-iea-chief-fatih-birol

Sometimes collapse is necessary, sometimes it is unavoidable, sometimes it is simply an expression of an inescapable debt coming home to roost. To recognize these things doesn’t necessarily mean you are an accelerationist, it means you are not in denial.

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What bullshit. As much as I’d like to hope that were the case, a few weeks of sort of expensive oil isn’t changing shit. Months of lockdown and gas prices hitting pennies didn’t do it.

This is a psy-op.

I think the argument is not so much for price increases (which we have now) but for the supply restrictions and destruction taking place. First consider that every month that Hormuz remains closed, the world loses about 2% of the yearly supply of oil and gas. Then take into account the long transition of the boats and the damage to wells and refineries means there will be scarcity. Heck, in some Asian countries that is already the case. And the scarcities will be global.

That is already baked into the world economy, just not factored onto the markets.

I also wonder how many shipowners and insurers will be happy to let their ships enter past the strait into the gulf if they’re not 100% confident they’ll be able to get back out again. If it happens once, the chances of it happening again generally increase.

None. The blockade is mostly enforced by the insurers, and the 5 years lead time to buy a new boat. All Iran has to do is fire the odd drone/missiles every once in a while and no ship owner will risk it




So I can say that this has changed the approach to a lot of Australians thinking about their next car. The mileage varies in other countries of course and yeah, there’s still the defiant but a few of us are thinking about how our next vehicle is powered, especially those with solar and given they attract a tax rebate.

I’m one of those, three I’ve spoken to in my family are, the next door neighbour is…they’re anecdotal but a cursory glance into what’s going on here backs it up. It’s changing and this recent problem has got people like me looking to accelerate that. I’m looking at an electric van or ute if one’s available as my next car.

I remember what my dad told me about what was going on in outback Australia in regards to horses and cars, the similarities are quite sobering. The arguments were the same; horses for one reason or another would be needed for transport. Petroleum is much broader of course and it will always be needed for other things but here at least transport flipping over in the mind is well underway now.


For real. “You won, things have changed”, just so people let up and they win time to get back into gear


We literally just sold our car over this, and I’m sure we’re not the only ones


Your argument is basically “nuh-uh!” and “conspiracy theory”



So did Trump help alternative power?

Like everyrhing, hes incompetent. He tried helping big oil. He screwed them.

hes incompetent.

He’s omni-incompetent.




one can hope

One can hope China is still selling solar panels and batteries. Because they are.

Once China reaches enough solar panels for itself the amount they export will skyrocket and it will provide solar for the whole world, because it’s profitable at scale.

They’ve been exporting for years. Which is why USA made them expensive and made laws to prevent people from buying them.

China has been providing solar to the entire world for a long time. China produces more solar energy just inside China that exceeds the entire energy consumption of USA.

Take a moment on that one. Appreciate that scale.





Can’t embargo the sun, wind, waves, or geothermal energy

But most of the infrastructure for harvesting renewable power comes from China, has a price and import can be embargoed.


Can’t embargo the sun

Mr. Burns did it …



Silver lining I guess…


Hooray! Fuck fossil fuels. Oil is valuable, why set it on fire?

Why don’t we encase it in useless gold and use it as currency?


Petrochemical industry should be the last thing using oil in decades because it actually needs the exact chemical feedstock. But with declining demand there sound be enough oil wells in existence to keep enough supply to match the declining demand decrease slowly over time.



It took millions of people dying and a genocide for this to happen 🤦‍♂️ I really don’t understand people.

The answer is money.

I know 😔 I still find it hard to believe that people can be so short sighted and selfish.





So what is the downside of this? It seems like a net-positive. Decreased demand for fossil fuels is great! It’s a shame it took a bunch of death and destruction, but now that it has happened, the silver-lining is quite shiny.

Decreased demand for fossil fuels means lower GDP. “The GDP of a nation is its fossil fuels usage” : Jancovici

Energy use and economic output are interconnected. Wealthier countries typically have higher energy consumption per person, contributing to their higher GDP per capita.

If only there were a way to generate near unlimited amounts of energy without fossil fuels.


The entire concept of GDP is going to be the end of humans

It was just implemented wrong, if you read the original paper military spending was meant to count against a countries GDP, if the US had actually used GDP in the way the original authors described they would of probably had negative growth for years now.



Pardon my ignorance but… So what? Like, what if somecountry isn’t winning the economic dick waggling competition?

Less food

That number is not actually representative of how much food they produce, though.

I meant “food for consumption”

Still not represented by GDP






lower GDP

What America may need to grok is that GDP is not the same as happiness, and in a choice between the two GDP seems to be irrelevant.


As with all rules of thumb, they don’t tell the whole story. Using fossil fuel usage as the sole stand in for energy usage, in an age when fossil fuel usage is being replaced by a different source… Is dumb.

Dumb is pretending it’s possible to move heavy machinery with a different source

Hydraulics already work off electricity. We already have electric cargo ships. Electric planes and semi trucks already exist. The percentage of machines that absolutely require fossil fuels at this point is shrinking rapidly.

Using an outdated metric continues to be dumb, regardless of your own limited awareness of the alternatives.








Oh hey it’s the thing ive been saying. This guy is stealing my material! /joking


Well at least some good can come out of this conflict.

And for the shareholders: go cry harder while the world smallest violin plays.


The only effective path to energy and economic security is homegrown clean energy.

Yes, and we have known that since the 70’s. And most European countries actually acted on it. Which is why Europe now has about a third the CO2 emission of USA per capita.

USA has been slacking for half a century, and is a major reason we are in as bad a situation as we are regarding climate change.




Anyone who thought trump knew wtf he was doing, deserves this, and so much more.

All those oil sycophants are finally getting what they’ve deserved all along.


I think the most important stated in this interview is the fact that it is not economically sound any more to persue new oil and gas fields.

Also, it seems the total amount of available oil and gas is going to shrink and we should plan accordingly.

Also, it seems the total amount of available oil and gas is going to shrink and we should plan accordingly.

This is likely now.

Here is an article about earlier estimates when the oil production was going to peak, due to resource depletion and rising costs:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predicting_the_timing_of_peak_oil

We are or were anyway very close to that point. One central fact for what follows is that the large and cheaply to exploit oil fields were discovered first, exploited first, and also last much longer. New oil fields are much smaller, more remote or deep under the sea, need higher costs for development, have a much smaller ratio of energy-invested-on-energy-returned, and have a shorter life time. This already creates a kind of economic cliff.

Now, there are several new factors which all will accelerate the decline of oil:

  • the war has added high risks to oil production and transport. The global environment among oil producers is no longer a cooperative one, instead it is a war situation, including in economic terms. Put plainly, Iran probably also bombs its neighbors because it wants a larger share of the remaining business. With Venezuela, the US overturned the government of another competitor. Russia is bombed by Ukraine. This is in part precisely because the global oil bonanza or rush for “black gold” will end soon.
  • since the old, large, and cheap wells in the gulf coast countries are cut off and facilities damaged, prices will be high for the next years. In theory, this could inentivize new investments. But developing new fields is slow and very risky, because when the large, old, cheap fields around the gulf come back, this will lower prices, making some new investments unprofitable. The reason is that new oil fields are much smaller (thus have a shorter life time), and at the same time much more expensive than the old fields.
  • many countries are now accelerating the transition away from using oil and gas for electricity generation, heating, and transport. The technology is there, and it is cheaper and will continue to be much cheaper in the future. And this will make investments in new, expensive, small oil fields unviable, since they will not pay off.

Another factor that might happen by the way is that the reduction of shipping as a result of lacking oil in South Asian waters - and of reduced economic activity, will likely lower the albedo over this sea regions, which could make the effects of global heating there much more acute. (This nexus is not yet 100% scientifically assured but the most likely explanation for the rise of extreme weather in the Mediterranean). And specifically South Asia which has not only very hot but regionally also extremely humid weather is very vulnerable to heat waves. Adding to that that some electricity there is still produced by oil generators, and failure of electric grids during heat waves is a catastrophic danger. If that happens, this is likely to change the way many people there think about climate change, and will put more pressure on governments to do something about it.

Oil will of course still be used in the future, but in much less quantity, and more as an expensive, environmentally highly damaging, special chemical product that is a necessary evil for some purposes.



Oh no! Won’t anybody think of the poor oligarchs?

I believe you mis-spelled “oiligarchs”, could it be?




Why the hell would nuclear not be a good choice for Australia? Solarmaxxing is a great strategy but why not back it up with nuclear?

Apparantly geothermal is extremely viable in australia for baseload as well. Also safer, and cheaper in the long run.

Yes.

Gosh, 20 years ago at uni I had science professors telling the class that we could (should) do geothermal.

Somehow it’s still not a thing we even talk about doing. ¯_(ツ)_/¯



From my understanding a nuclear power station would take 8-10 years to get up while costing an enormous amount, especially now that transport, materials, etc, etc, will cost a lot more with the current supply situation. So, for those reasons it is not a viable way to go.


That depends. Is Australia self sufficient when it comes to nuclear fuel?

There is plenty of uranium ore. Long way from there to a nuclear industry though.


Good point, dunno on that one


We have plenty of uranium but no capacity to enrich it or turn to actual fuel rods. So we do not.



Takes way too long to set up. Like 20 years with all delays.

Solar you buy today and place tomorrow. And it is cheaper too.


Because nuclear works, can be build, and fit well to current infrastructure. Renewables can’t replace base generation, require non existing production capacity, grid upgrades and etc.



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